United States Department of Agriculture
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Model Evaluation Guidelines for Systematic Quantification of Accuracy in Watershed Simulations
Watershed models are powerful tools for simulating the effect of watershed processes and management on soil and water resources. However, no comprehensive guidance is available to facilitate model evaluation in terms of the accuracy of simulated data compared to measured flow and constituent values. Thus, the objectives of this research were to: (1) determine recommended model evaluation techniques (statistical and graphical), (2) review reported ranges of values and corresponding performance ratings for the recommended statistics, and (3) establish guidelines for model evaluation based on the review results and project-specific considerations; all of these objectives focus on simulation of streamflow and transport of sediment and nutrients. These objectives were achieved with a thorough review of relevant literature on model application and recommended model evaluation methods. Based on this analysis, we recommend that three quantitative statistics, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), and ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR), in addition to the graphical techniques, be used in model evaluation. The following model evaluation performance ratings were established for each recommended statistic. In general, model simulation can be judged as satisfactory if NSE > 0.50 and RSR < 0.70, and if PBIAS + 25% for streamflow, PBIAS + 55% for sediment, and PBIAS + 70% for N and P. For PBIAS, constituent-specific performance ratings were determined based on uncertainty of measured data. Additional considerations related to model evaluation guidelines are also discussed. These considerations include: single-event simulation, quality and quantity of measured data, model calibration procedure, evaluation time step, and project scope and magnitude. A case study illustrating the application of the model evaluation guidelines is also provided.
Functional Biology and Molecular Mechanisms of Host-Pathogen Interactions for Aflatoxin Contamination in Groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) and Maize (Zea mays L.)
and closely related species that infect several agricultural commodities including groundnut and maize. The consumption of contaminated commodities adversely affects the health of humans and livestock. Aflatoxin contamination also causes significant economic and financial losses to producers. Research efforts and significant progress have been made in the past three decades to understand the genetic behavior, molecular mechanisms, as well as the detailed biology of host-pathogen interactions. A range of omics approaches have facilitated better understanding of the resistance mechanisms and identified pathways involved during host-pathogen interactions. Most of such studies were however undertaken in groundnut and maize. Current efforts are geared toward harnessing knowledge on host-pathogen interactions and crop resistant factors that control aflatoxin contamination. This study provides a summary of the recent progress made in enhancing the understanding of the functional biology and molecular mechanisms associated with host-pathogen interactions during aflatoxin contamination in groundnut and maize.