Advanced Statistical Methods and Models

Evaluating Structural Equation Models with Unobservable Variables and Measurement Error

The statistical tests used in the analysis of structural equation models with unobservable variables and measurement error are examined. A drawback of the commonly applied chi square test, in addition to the known problems related to sample size and power, is that it may indicate an increasing correspondence between the hypothesized model and the observed data as both the measurement properties and the relationship between constructs decline. Further, and contrary to common assertion, the risk of making a Type II error can be substantial even when the sample size is large. Moreover, the present testing methods are unable to assess a model's explanatory power. To overcome these problems, the authors develop and apply a testing system based on measures of shared variance within the structural model, measurement model, and overall model.

Alternative Ways of Assessing Model Fit

This article is concerned with measures of fit of a model. Two types of error involved in fitting a model are considered. The first is error of approximation which involves the fit of the model, with optimally chosen but unknown parameter values, to the population covariance matrix. The second is overall error which involves the fit of the model, with parameter values estimated from the sample, to the population covariance matrix. Measures of the two types of error are proposed and point and interval estimates of the measures are suggested. These measures take the number of parameters in the model into account in order to avoid penalizing parsimonious models. Practical difficulties associated with the usual tests of exact fit or a model are discussed and a test of “close fit” of a model is suggested.

Comparative fit indexes in structural models.

Normed and nonnormed fit indexes are frequently used as adjuncts to chi-square statistics for evaluating the fit of a structural model. A drawback of existing indexes is that they estimate no known population parameters. A new coefficient is proposed to summarize the relative reduction in the noncentrality parameters of two nested models. Two estimators of the coefficient yield new normed (CFI) and nonnormed (FI) fit indexes. CFI avoids the underestimation of fit often noted in small samples for Bentler and Bonett's (1980) normed fit index (NFI). FI is a linear function of Bentler and Bonett's non-normed fit index (NNFI) that avoids the extreme underestimation and overestimation often found in NNFI. Asymptotically, CFI, FI, NFI, and a new index developed by Bollen are equivalent measures of comparative fit, whereas NNFI measures relative fit by comparing noncentrality per degree of freedom. All of the indexes are generalized to permit use of Wald and Lagrange multiplier statistics. An example illustrates the behavior of these indexes under conditions of correct specification and misspecification. The new fit indexes perform very well at all sample sizes.

Longitudinal data analysis using generalized linear models

This paper proposes an extension of generalized linear models to the analysis of longitudinal data. We introduce a class of estimating equations that give consistent estimates of the regression parameters and of their variance under mild assumptions about the time dependence. The estimating equations are derived without specifying the joint distribution of a subject's observations yet they reduce to the score equations for niultivariate Gaussian outcomes. Asymptotic theory is presented for the general class of estimators. Specific cases in which we assume independence, m-dependence and exchangeable correlation structures from each subject are discussed. Efficiency of the pioposecl estimators in two simple situations is considered. The approach is closely related to quasi-likelihood.

Simultaneous Inference in General Parametric Models

Simultaneous inference is a common problem in many areas of application. If multiple null hypotheses are tested simultaneously, the probability of rejecting erroneously at least one of them increases beyond the pre-specified significance level. Simultaneous inference procedures have to be used which adjust for multiplicity and thus control the overall type I error rate. In this paper we describe simultaneous inference procedures in general parametric models, where the experimental questions are specified through a linear combination of elemental model parameters. The framework described here is quite general and extends the canonical theory of multiple comparison procedures in ANOVA models to linear regression problems, generalized linear models, linear mixed effects models, the Cox model, robust linear models, etc. Several examples using a variety of different statistical models illustrate the breadth of the results. For the analyses we use the R add-on package multcomp, which provides a convenient interface to the general approach adopted here.

Structural Equation Models with Unobservable Variables and Measurement Error: Algebra and Statistics

Several issues relating to goodness of fit in structural equations are examined. The convergence and differentiation criteria, as applied by Bagozzi, are shown not to stand up under mathematical or statistical analysis. The authors argue that the choice of interpretative statistic must be based on the research objective. They demonstrate that when this is done the Fornell-Larcker testing system is internally consistent and that it conforms to the rules of correspondence for relating data to abstract variables.

Fit indices in covariance structure modeling: Sensitivity to underparameterized model misspecification.

This study evaluated the sensitivity of maximum likelihood (ML)-, generalized least squares (GLS)-, and asymptotic distribution-free (ADF)-based fit indices to model misspecification, under conditions that varied sample size and distribution. The effect of violating assumptions of asymptotic robustness theory also was ex-amined. Standardized root-mean-square residual (SRMR) was the most sensitive index to models with misspecified factor covariance(s), and Tucker-Lewis Index (1973; TLI), Bollen's fit index (1989; BL89), relative noncentrality index (RNI), comparative fit index (CFI), and the ML- and GLS-based gamma hat, McDonald's centrality index (1989; Me), and root-mean-square error of approximation (RMSEA) were the most sensitive indices to models with misspecified factor loadings. With ML and GLS methods, we recommend the use of SRMR, supple-mented by TLI, BL89, RNI, CFI, gamma hat, Me, or RMSEA (TLI, Me, and RMSEA are less preferable at small sample sizes). With the ADF method, we recommend the use of SRMR, supplemented by TLI, BL89, RNI, or CFI. Finally, most of the ML-based fit indices outperformed those obtained from GLS and ADF

Structural Equation Models with Unobservable Variables and Measurement Error: Algebra and Statistics

Claes Fornell, David F. Larcker, Structural Equation Models with Unobservable Variables and Measurement Error: Algebra and Statistics, Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. 18, No. 3 (Aug., 1981), pp. 382-388

Model Selection and Estimation in Regression with Grouped Variables

Summary We consider the problem of selecting grouped variables (factors) for accurate prediction in regression. Such a problem arises naturally in many practical situations with the multifactor analysis-of-variance problem as the most important and well-known example. Instead of selecting factors by stepwise backward elimination, we focus on the accuracy of estimation and consider extensions of the lasso, the LARS algorithm and the non-negative garrotte for factor selection. The lasso, the LARS algorithm and the non-negative garrotte are recently proposed regression methods that can be used to select individual variables. We study and propose efficient algorithms for the extensions of these methods for factor selection and show that these extensions give superior performance to the traditional stepwise backward elimination method in factor selection problems. We study the similarities and the differences between these methods. Simulations and real examples are used to illustrate the methods.

Generalized Linear Models

Regression Modeling Strategies

This highly anticipated second edition features new chapters and sections, 225 new references, and comprehensive R software. In keeping with the previous edition, this book is about the art and scienc

Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-Nested Hypotheses

In this paper, we develop a classical approach to model selection. Using the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion to measure the closeness of a model to the truth, we propose simple likelihood-ratio based statistics for testing the null hypothesis that the competing models are equally close to the true data generating process against the alternative hypothesis that one model is closer. The tests are directional and are derived successively for the cases where the competing models are non-nested, overlapping, or nested and whether both, one, or neither is misspecified. As a prerequisite, we fully characterize the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic under the most general conditions. We show that it is a weighted sum of chi-square distribution or a normal distribution depending on whether the distributions in the competing models closest to the truth are observationally identical. We also propose a test of this latter condition.

Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models

Regression Models for Ordinal Data

Summary A general class of regression models for ordinal data is developed and discussed. These models utilize the ordinal nature of the data by describing various modes of stochastic ordering and this eliminates the need for assigning scores or otherwise assuming cardinality instead of ordinality. Two models in particular, the proportional odds and the proportional hazards models are likely to be most useful in practice because of the simplicity of their interpretation. These linear models are shown to be multivariate extensions of generalized linear models. Extensions to non-linear models are discussed and it is shown that even here the method of iteratively reweighted least squares converges to the maximum likelihood estimate, a property which greatly simplifies the necessary computation. Applications are discussed with the aid of examples.